How Might the Bitcoin Cash Trade War Go Down?

Now that BitcoinSV futures have launched, we might perhaps be better placed to speculate how events might unfold on or around November 15th when all BCH holders suddenly find out they have this new coin called BSV.

The futures play so far suggests BSV does have some support. In line with previous splits, that support appears to be at around 10%-20%.

It is probable, therefore, that BCH’s price will initially split between BSV and the post-fork BCH, which in combination may initially be worth the same as the pre-fork BCH price.

That means BCH’s price might fall once BSV trading starts as BSV supporters sell BCH to buy BSV. The combined price, however, will probably not move below BCH’s pre-fork price if this unfolds like previous splits.

A divergence may then occur whereby the combined price becomes higher than the pre-fork price. That’s because the trading war might attract new funds either in a speculative attack against BCH or because the coins on their own have more combined support than when it was just one coin.

What happened previously is that the main-coin supporters instantly sold the split coin. That drove the split coin’s price down to a very low level, attracting speculators after the “haters” sold.

In trading frenzy, the split coin reached about 50% of the then current price of the main-coin. That led to a new phase where the two coins kind of no longer care about each other with “normal” speculative activity returning after the “party” is over.

That might not necessarily repeat itself. “Haters” might hold off, for example, but that wouldn’t be very easy because supporters may send the price to a level that you’d think is too high. Haters then would sell, with high volatility driving the split coin’s price to a level you’d think maybe this is actually worthless. The dance so continuing.

Obviously no one can predict what millions of actors may do. This is, moreover, a split of a split, so it might be different, but so far it looks similar to previous splits, with BSV having the support of circa 1 in 5 BCHers according to the futures price action.

BSV’s trading action against BTC has some reasonable trading volumes of $653,000, giving it a current price of $115 per BSV and $478 for ABC. So there’s clearly a market for it.

Meaning there might be some trading frenzy come November 15th as the market decides how to value the two coins, but how this will play exactly, remains to be seen.

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