Bulls and Bears in a Stare

The air is thick with anticipation as previous shouts of bulls and bears, the running around of chaotic months, has now given way to a well-behaved crowd with a bear here and there politely whispering he/she thinks it will break down and a bull saying maybe but he/she thinks it will break up.

The loud bear party over 10 months now has bears wondering whether it will go on or whether they got far too drunk, whether the bear music got far too loud, whether it is time for them to go home or indeed collapse on the couch.

Bulls, on the other hand, may slowly be joining the town square, wondering whether their time has come, or, at the very least, whether the beating is done.

A massive triangle has been forming over the past ten months. It does not tell us much regarding direction as it says it could indicate a continuation of the bear market, or a reversal towards the start of a bull market. The latter is more reliable, textbooks say.

What it might tell us more generally is that a change might be afoot. That a cycle perhaps has ended and that a new one might be beginning.

In other words, no one knows what this means, but all know it means something, and what that something is no one knows until it does tell us.

So no one is playing. Volumes are a bit down. Bitcoin’s price range is getting tighter and tighter. The calm has arrived before what may be quite a storm.

Four years ago to this day, the scene was different. Bitcoin was undergoing capitulation, immortalized now in the story of bearwhale.

30,000 BTC were placed as a limit order at precisely $300 on Bitstamp, shocking all. Other exchanges started moving down, but something strange happened on Bitstamp. A brave little bull poked the bearwhale with a little buy order.

The chaos on other exchanges froze in its tracks. All trying to digest what this little bull had just done. And then another little bull, and another, culminating with a flood of a bull army slaying the bearwhale.

We’ve documented in these pages the many striking similarities between bitcoin’s previous price action and eth’s. The above is another rhyme, almost to the day, as eth just recently had its own capitulation of very much a similar scale as bitcoin back then.

We know what bitcoin did, but we don’t know whether eth will really keep rhyming and we don’t know what bitcoin will do now.

All we know is that bulls and bears are staring at each other, and they may soon fight.

Which one will win time will say, but eth bulls have already shown their mighty army on September 12th when trading volumes reached unseen levels over a two week period.

Maybe that quietened bears, which may have now gotten week after all the partying for all of 2018, but how the story unfolds is yet to be told.

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