While today the crypto markets are starting to look a little alive and is seeing a somewhat green pattern, Tom Lee from Fundstrat tweeted a sort of reminder about the rule of 10 best days. He says that the majority of Bitcoin gains come in the ten best trading days. According to Lee, this only happens once a year. Moreover, he claims that when these ten best trading days are excluded, Bitcoin sees a -25% per year.
More specifically, in the last bull run of 2017 Bitcoin saw an unbelievable rise of +1,136% in price. Also, in the so-called “crypto winter” of 2018 when all the crypto market saw a heavy decline, Bitcoin’s price increased by +66% in the “10 best days”.
But when looking at this statistic by excluding these ten best days, the overall price of Bitcoin has seen some significant losses. For example, in 2017 while Bitcoin’s price increased +232% it also experienced a 140% decline. Tom Lee paints some similarities in 2013 and 2014 when the price of Bitcoin lost 199% and 133%. Considering all that, Thomas Lee says that since 2013, if the ten best trading days are excluded, Bitcoin sees an average of -25% annually.
Lee addressed this to the last day FUD that has been revolving around the crypto-space and calmed everyone by asking:
Before everyone starts freaking out whether crypto winter is over, remember the @fundstrat ‘rule of 10 best days’ (rule #6)– ex-10 best days, #bitcoin down 25% per year. All the gains come in 10 days. Are u that good at trading?PS: we believe $BTC is weak in trendless macro. pic.twitter.com/zzDOfPjVBq— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) September 28, 2019
According to Thomas Lee, if a person doesn’t HODL his portfolio during these ten best days of the year, his portfolio lost an average of 25% of his investments. This is very similar to S&P 500, where if an investor or a trader doesn’t hold his portfolio of stocks throughout the ten best trading days, his portfolio lost an average drop from 5.4% to 9.2%. This is one of the main reasons why “it’s all about hodling”.
Lee believes that Bitcoin won’t make another new yearly high until the S&P 500 will. This is because of the “trendless macro”, as he mentions this in his tweet.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $8,144 according to CoinMarketCap and is up +0,86% today after recently falling down to such low levels as $7836. This recent price drop in the crypto markets has called out many trading experts to comment on this issue. Most of these comments were somewhat pessimistic and a slight panic had entered the market.
For example, crypto trader and analyst “Hsaka” tweeted in his Twitter profile that buying this dip could be an expensive lesson, justifying this thought with the fact that lately, Bitcoin trendlines have become very weak.
Another expert – Josh Rager, said that Bitcoin even can fall to such lows as $6,300:
“Have been asked how far can BTC drop IMO, the lowest BTC will hit: between $6300 to $6600 where there is major interest Price currently bounced off monthly support & if this area breaks could head to $6600 – based on higher time frames.”