Devs are to have a call on Thursday when a number of issues are to be discussed, including updates on research, potential releases, as well as client specific developments. Regarding that livestreamed meeting, Ryan said:
“More pressing items will be sorting through what the blockers are on v0.10.1 multi-client testnets, and the following week we will have the initial Least Authority audit results. Both of these will inform the coming months and ultimately the launch date.”
Single client testnets have been running for a couple of weeks with it now rising to 35,000 validators in just one of them.
A key milestone will be the launch of multi-client testnets, or the testnet, as at that point it will run pretty much identical to the live network.
Ryan says seeing what needs to be done to get that testnet out will be one important part of the livestreamed call, with another milestone then being the audit.
If we’re not mistaken the Least Authority audit is one of two audits expected, both in February. An additional formal verification audit for the deposit contract was out last month with all its recommendations addressed.
There have been client specific audits too, so it’s getting a bit difficult to keep track but the Least Authority report is a key milestone.
They’ll probably suggest some changes next week which will then be incorporated into the v.0.11 spec.
That spec gives the greenlight for the launch of the multi-client testnet genesis block, as well as the deposit contract, both maybe sometime this month.
The final milestone is then the v.1 spec which gives the greenlight for the genesis block launch on mainnet.
Three months on testnet are necessary if all goes well, so mainnet launch might be sometime in May or early June or if they want to be symbolic then maybe on the 30th of July which is the non-deadline .
That’s after the BCH and BSV halving, and far more importantly, it is after the bitcoin halvening on the 6th of May, three months from now.
However while the bitcoin halvening is a one block event when some number on the screen changes from 12.5 to 6.25, the ethereum 2.0 launch is a more gradual affair that technically begins with the deposit contract launch and then is finalized with genesis.
Once that deposit contract goes out we’ll be able to see how much eth is taking the voyage to the brand new blockchain.
Our out of nothing estimate would be definitely ◊500,000 ad initio because the reward at that level is a crazy 35% or so.
We’d say very likely 1 million. Likely 5 million. And probably even perhaps early on about ◊10 million.
From then on any growth should slowdown because people are lazy and information travels slowly and it is too new, so people want to see it move first but an important point here perhaps is that this is protocol level eth.
That makes it very different from some dapp eth or some wallet eth. Meaning if there is a systematic bug, well there is no bug because the network would just upgrade to unbug it.
However if it is more localized, if your setup is wrong or whatever, then it’s not systematic. So especially for service providers it is quite important to test and test all this as there is a fine balance between holders cheering at you losing eth, and that of holders wanting their eth back.
Finding that line is a futile exercise but the point being made is if some protocol bug is deleting accounts or whatever, then it’s not a bug.
So people might be less cautious than with a dapp where it concerns the blockchain itself and its security, but they might be very anxious where it concerns their own setup or that of service providers as there they are on their own.
Meaning we estimate eventually probably around 50 million eth will be locked, giving a very different sort of halvening and 2% a year in eth.
How that number moves will probably be determined more by price actio than other factors, with it likely to go up during bull, and very down during bear.
Yet as it stands we know nothing so we can only guess because there has never been Proof of Stake in a main coin.
So we’ll just have to observe starting with the deposit contract when it launches maybe in a few weeks.