Permalink to Key Events Could Shake Up Bitcoin and Crypto Market in July/August: SFOX

Summary

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The SFOX Multi-Factor Market Index has moved from uncertain to mildly bullish as of July 9th, 2019. Facebook’s Project Libra took center stage, highlighting both institutional interest in crypto and the persistent use case of Bitcoin as a decentralized currency. Rumors of Bitcoin’s current volatility have been exaggerated: we’re actually experiencing a downward trend in Bitcoin’s volatility peaks since 2017. LedgerX and ErisX were approved by the CFTC to offer physically settled Bitcoin futures contracts, indicating crypto’s continued financial maturation. Bitcoin’s performance during the Fourth of July appears to provide a further data point for SFOX’s thesis that Bitcoin appears, at least anecdotally, to have a positive relationship with holidays during bull runs. Watch for Senate/Congressional hearings, new innovations in futures, and updates to major blockchain protocols to potentially impact the crypto market in the coming month.

In the June 2019 edition of our monthly volatility report, the SFOX research team has collected price, volume, and volatility data from eight major exchanges and liquidity providers to analyze the global performance of 6 leading cryptoassets  –  BTC, ETH, BCH, LTC, BSV, and ETC.

Note: In order to better report and analyze the entirety of the continued crypto rally, the team at SFOX has extended the period this report covers from the beginning of June through July 9th.

Current Crypto Market Outlook: Mildly Bullish 

Based on our calculations and analyses, the SFOX Multi-Factor Market Index, which was set at uncertain at the beginning of June 2019, has been moved to mildly bullish as of July 9th, 2019.

SFOX Multi-Factor Market Index, June 2019 Mildly Bullish

Analysis of June and Early July 2019 Crypto Performance

Facebook announced the details of its cryptocurrency Project Libra, which signaled the interest of major companies in crypto and coincided with the beginning of the current rally (June 18th). Bitcoin’s 30-day historical volatility cleared 80% for the first time since last December  –  but it’s far from being “more volatile than ever” (June 30th). LedgerX and ErisX received approval from the CFTC to offer physically settled Bitcoin futures (June 25th; July 1st). The Fourth of July saw a bump in Bitcoin’s price, reinforcing the view that major holidays falling on bull runs may potentially correspond to temporary boosts in Bitcoin’s price.

What to Watch in the Rest of July 2019

Look to these events as potentially moving the volatility indices of BTC, ETH, BCH, LTC, BSV, and ETC in the remainder of July and early August:

Senate and House meetings on Facebook and Project Libra (July 16th  –  17th) Bakkt initiating user acceptance testing for physically settled Bitcoin futures via ICE (July 22nd) Default block size cap of Bitcoin SV increased to 2 GB (July 24th) CME BTC futures last-trade date (July 26th) Litecoin block reward size cut in half (August 5th)

The Details: June 2019 Crypto Price, Volatility, and Correlation Data

Price Performance: A Bitcoin-Dominated Rally

Bitcoin is the headline of the ongoing crypto rally. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap opened June 2019 at a price of $8542.45; as of July 9th, it had risen to a price of $12490.74.

As of July 9th, BTC/USD led all asset pairs tracked by our report in month-over-month growth at 57.81%. ETH/USD followed with 26.94% month-over-month growth, with gold in third place at 11.01%  – compared with 3.49% for the S&P 500. Ethereum Classic had the distinction of being the only asset tracked by our report with negative month-over-month growth as of the 9th (-5.95%).

Volatility: Riding Bitcoin’s Waves 

Volatility of Leading Cryptoassets, Gold, and S&P 500, June 1st – July 9th, 201930-Day Historical Volatility of BTC, ETH, BCH, LTC, BSV, ETC, Gold, and S&P 500

Relative Crypto Volatilities, June 1st – July 9th, 201930-Day Historical Volatilities of ETH, BCH, LTC, BSV, and ETC, Divided by the 30-Day Historical Volatility of BTC

BTC’s 30-day price correlations with ETH and BCH were both relatively positive as of July 9th. In contrast, BTC has an unusually negative correlation with Litecoin. This reinforces the narrative that, throughout 2019, Litecoin may be establishing itself as an asset with fundamentals independent of Bitcoin.

For a full crypto correlations matrix, see the following chart.

30-Day Correlations of BTC, ETH, BCH, LTC, the S&P 500, and GoldJuly 9th, 2019

You can check out the full SFOX Crypto Market Volatility Report: June 2019 here.

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