The ETH/USD pair has been on a downward trend all this year, much like the other top coins including bitcoin, ripple, and litecoin. At the time of this writing, the pair has experienced a 78 percent drop from its all-time high above 1400-fiat – and still counting. The last 24 hours itself have confirmed the strong selling sentiment with a drastic fall of over 9.5 percent.
Ethereum, being a dApp platform, is eventually pillared on the success of its derivate platforms. Though nothing can be narrowed down to one reason, but it cannot be denied that most of the Ethereum-based platforms have failed in 2018. What we could be witnessing these days are people flushing out dumb money, thus enabling a downtrend towards a potential reversal.
A stronger dollar, on the other hand, could also be the reason behind the bearish sentiment in the crypto market. The greenback has established new monthly highs by stepping on Turkey’s currency crisis, eventually pushing the value of almost all the high-volumed mainstream assets, including gold and the euro, down.
The ETH/USD is now moving towards 275-fiat, the November 2017’s low that influenced the bull run towards the pair all-time high. The area, if tested, could invoke a strong buying sentiment, allowing us to retest 395-fiat in medium-term. However, a breakout towards the downside could push the ETH/USD value to as low as early 200s.
The technical indicators support the bearish bias as of now. The ETH/USD is visibly below its 50-, 100-, and 200-H moving averages. The RSI and Stochastic indicators, at the same time, have slipped inside their respective oversold areas, awaiting breakout.
In the medium term, we are inside a descending channel with potential long and short opportunities. So, traders can make bets based on the fluctuations within the constrained channel.
As for our intrarange strategy, today we are watching 275-fiat as our potential interim support and 395-fiat as interim resistance. We will be waiting for a bounce back from 275-fiat purely because of its historical significance. Should it happen, a long move towards descending channel resistance, followed by another long move towards 395-fiat should bring us decent profits. A stop loss around 270-fiat, meanwhile, will minimize our losses should the bearish momentum intensify.
A pullback from descending channel and interim resistance will have us put a short towards 275-fiat while keeping our stop loss 2-pips above the entry position.
If the ETH/USD breaks below 275-fiat, it will bring 252-fiat in view as our immediate downside target. Putting a stop loss 3-pips above the entry position will define our risk.
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