Market Analysis

Bitcoin Falls $1,000 on Futures Expiry

from Trust Nodes 4 years ago 0 0 1441

Probable futures manipulation was on show last night in an almost identical repeat of Thursday, April 25th.

Just as then bitcoin fell by about 10%, so too on Thursday May 30th, a day before futures expiry later today, Friday 31st.

In this zoomed in 1 minute chart, we can see bitcoin rose quite a bit starting at circa 15:30 London time. It reaches over $9,000 and stays over $9,000 for precisely six minutes.

Then it goes back to where it was, $8,700, and stays there until around 8 o’clock London time when it falls to a recent low of precisely $8,000 to then recover to about $8,300.

Meaning if we copy paste last month’s article on Friday April 26th, then it would all be very correct. So that’s exactly what we’re going to do:

It’s the last Friday of the month. That means futures expire today and like clockwork cryptos fell about 10% before recovering to only minus circa 4% 5%.

About 65,000 70,000 bitcoin representative contracts exchanged hands on CME this [Wednesday] April 24th May 29th. That’s circa $340 million $570 million of Wall Street bankers money.

Every single day – except for weekends – they take a bet on whether bitcoin’s price in crypto exchanges will rise or fall, with such bets in total now usually amounting to about $300 million $500 million a day.

These bets never touch actual bitcoin, but they are based on bitcoin’s price as aggregated by CME on at least four exchanges: Bitstamp, Coinbase, itBit and Kraken.eval(ez_write_tag([[336,280],'trustnodes_com-medrectangle-4','ezslot_1',169,'0']));

“Each day, the BRR aggregates the trade flow of major bitcoin spot exchanges during a specific one-hour calculation window. This one-hour window is then partitioned into 12, five-minute intervals, where the BRR is calculated as the equally-weighted average of the volume-weighted medians of all 12 partitions,” they say.

Such partitioning is done to prevent spot price manipulation, but the use of this specific one hour period is interesting because all you need to do to circumvent it is to manipulate the price the day before. That being between 5PM London time say on April 25th May 30th and before 3PM London time on April 26th May 31st.

9PM London time sounds perfect. Europe is maybe having dinner, some family time, watching the news, or maybe for some they have gone to bed. When they wake up, hopefully they’ll give some more downwards momentum preferably before 3PM. The contract can then expire and the Wall Street bears can make some money.