It is impossible to predict the bottom of Bitcoin, however, it can be seen that Bitcoin has had some improvements in the macro scale as compared to its situation in 2018.
Brendan Bernstein, a Twitter user, pointed out a couple of these factors that were helping Bitcoin, directly or indirectly.
Theres a perfect storm for BTC right now – Democratic socialism– MMT (Modern monopoly money theory)– QE infinity– 10k boomers retiring daily (entitlements skyrocketing)– 2020 election– US interest expense > tax receipts by 2022– BTC halving in 2020 Never been more bullish — Brendan Bernstein (@BMBernstein) March 29, 2019
Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee aka Tom Lee, a Bitcoin bull and an enthusiast, commented on the tweet. He agreed with Bernstein and added that there were definitely a number of macro factors acting as tailwinds for Bitcoin. He also mentioned that a couple of these tailwinds were acting as headwinds for Bitcoin in 2018.
In addition, Lee posted an image which detailed a list of factors which were a hindrance to Bitcoin’s growth, but have now transformed into a helping factor for Bitcoin.
Some of these factors included the US Dollar, EM, and Bitcoin Technicals, among others. The US Dollar, according to Lee, will weaken over the course of 2019 due to various reasons like QE by the Fed, and debt reaching an all-time high. Emerging Market [EM] was a headwind in 2018 and is now starting to act as a tailwind for Bitcoin as EMs are outperforming equities.
The technicals for Bitcoin, particularly the 200-day moving average, is currently acting as a support for Bitcoin’s prices. According to Lee, the price of Bitcoin will support the 200-day moving average and push for a bull run.
Other factors included the overall development in the crypto and the blockchain community, like the adoption of the Lightning Network, which would help Bitcoin scale successfully. Clarity regarding regulatory framework around cryptocurrencies and the entry of institutional investors into crypto could also trigger the bull run.
A Twitter user, @bitcoinpassada, commented:
“It’s honestly not even a question any more. 100k is gonna look cheap for a lot of people within a few more years.”
@tradeslower, another Twitter user, commented:
“Not to mention macro ie recession risk into 2021. QE has created alpha addiction/expectation like no other per equities. When that music stops where does liquidity turn to? Pension crisis? Bitcoin allocations…?”