Several prominent people in the industry like Mike Novogratz, John McAfee, Tom Lee etc. have their own theory about what the price of Bitcoin will be at a certain point in time.
Predictions So Far
John McAfee, the creator of the famed McAfee anti-virus software and a tech/security expert, made a prediction about the price of Bitcoin on July 17, 2017, that took everyone by surprise. McAfee predicted that the price of Bitcoin would reach $500,000 by the end of 2020, he quickly adjusted his model and sent out another tweet which read:
“When I predicted Bitcoin at $500,000 by the end of 2020, it used a model that predicted $5,000 at the end of 2017. BTC has accelerated much faster than my model assumptions. I now predict Bitcoin at $1 million by the end of 2020. I will still eat my d*ck if wrong.”
Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee and Sam Doctor considered the break-even cost that is required to mine Bitcoin and formulated a price prediction,
“We believe the current path of hash power growth supports a BTC price of about $36,000 by 2019 year end, with a $20,000-$64,000 range.”
According to Bloomberg reports on February 14, 2019, Mike Novogratz of the Digital Holdings said, “A small amount of institutional assets is a lot of money,” and that Bitcoin would reach $8,000 in the next 12 months.
Bobby Lee, the co-founder of BTCC (Hong Kong-based Bitcoin exchange), made a bullish Bitcoin prediction. He said that Bitcoin would hit its lowest in 2019, but reach a maximum of $333,000 in 2021. Bob Lee even said that Bitcoin would fall to approximately $43,000 in 2023 and iterated that the market cap of Bitcoin would surpass gold’s 7 trillion dollar mark eventually.
Arthur Hayes, the CEO of BitMEX exchange, changed his bullish predictions [Bitcoin will reach $50,000 by end of 2019] to Bitcoin hitting as low as $3,000.
Tone Vays, a prominent Bitcoin enthusiast and trader, said that Bitcoin might even see a price that is below $3,000 and that the fall or summer of 2019 could bring the price of Bitcoin to $1,500.
Technical analyses give an apt explanation to price performance in the past and a probability of how the prices would perform in the near future, which is again up to one’s own interpretation.
Golden Cross Theory is one such theory that is circulating the cryptocurrency eco-system. According to the theory, the price candles for Bitcoin are in the same pattern as it were in late 2015, when the last Golden Cross propelled the price to reach an all-time high of ~$20,000.
Moreover, the price of Bitcoin after the death cross on April 07, 2014, fell from $446 to $168, which was approximately 62% decrease in price. If Bitcoin were to fall by 62% from the current price [$3,929], the price would reach $2,566; this is where the bull is supposed to happen.
The next Golden Cross, as per the technicals, is expected to happen on September 26, 2019. Assuming history will repeat itself, the price of Bitcoin can be predicted by extrapolating the data already available. After the Golden Cross, the bulls pushed the price from a mere $286.15 to $19,666, which was an increase of 6,772.619%.
To be on the safer side, the assumption is that the price will reflect a minimum of the previous percentage increase, the price of one Bitcoin would reach $176,335.52 by November 16, 2021.
Bitcoin has seen some decent rallies considering the bear year of 2018. The cryptocurrency community and Bitcoin enthusiasts are content with the recent rallies and are of the belief that Bitcoin bottomed out on December 15, 2018, when the price of Bitcoin reached $3,122. In addition to this, the community speculated that this could be the beginning of the bull run.
However, a lot of analysts and traders are under the impression that this is a bull trap as there hasn’t been any capitulation among retail traders or users and that only after the capitulation would the bull run begin.
Moreover, the crypto fear and greed index shows that it is climbing up, trying to reach an all-time high. The crypto fear and greed index is currently at 63, which is 12 points away from toppling 2018 highs.
Bitcoin [BTC], according to the technicals, is yet to bottom and this could happen before the end of September 2019. The next bull run which might happen at the end of 2019 and early 2020 will take Bitcoin to new highs, making the $20,000 rally a small number.